[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101921
SWODY1
SPC AC 101919

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 40 N BPT
55 E ACT 20 SW ACT 55 S BWD 35 NNE JCT 25 NNW SJT 30 ESE LBB 40 ESE
AMA 30 SW GAG 30 W END 30 WNW FSM 35 ENE GWO 35 WNW AUO 15 WNW MCN
15 E CHS ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 25 NW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 50 NNW TUS
PRC 50 N IGM 40 E DRA 70 W P38 55 SSW ELY 50 NNW MLF 25 SE DPG 15
SSW SLC 35 SSW EVW 35 WNW VEL 30 WSW EGE ALS 25 SSW LVS 50 NNW GDP
35 SSE GDP 40 SSW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES AND OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER
SE LA...SRN MS AND SW AL. THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
STRONG STORMS. IN THIS AREA...BACKED SFC FLOW IS CREATING STRONG
VEERING BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED INLAND
AND MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE COAST CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 250 TO 500
J/KG. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL.


ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDS EWD FROM
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FROM THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAKE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT OVER
THESE AREAS.

..BROYLES.. 10/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.