[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101631
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 40 E LFK
50 SSW TYR 35 NE JCT 40 NW SJT 15 E LBB 30 SSE AMA 45 NE AMA 20 SSE
GAG 50 WSW TUL 15 W MKO 10 SW FSM 25 NNE HOT 40 N GLH 35 ESE GWO 20
SSW 0A8 15 SE AUO 25 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 25 NW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 50 SE PHX
45 SSE PRC 35 SE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 W ELY 35 SSW
EVW 20 SE CAG 40 SE ASE 15 S RTN 20 SE CNM 45 SW MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW
WILL DRIFT GENERALLY NWD TODAY ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS...TO THE E OF
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW TX.  THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TODAY ACROSS SRN MS/AL...AND A
SMALL PORTION OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED OVER THE LA
DELTA. HOWEVER...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PRONOUNCED
COOL/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...WHILE THICK CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TEND TO
COUNTER DESTABILIZATION INLAND FROM THE COAST. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
WARM FRONT E OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT WEAK INLAND
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WLYS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH E TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW NEWD MOTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW TX.
GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING FROM SE NV EWD ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ
/THROUGH ASCENT NE OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW/ SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM N TX
AND SRN OK EWD TO NRN LA/AR IN ADVANCE OF THE TX MID LEVEL LOW...BUT
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.