[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101229
SWODY1
SPC AC 101228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
HUM 15 SW BTR 20 SSE MCB 30 NNE GPT 40 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 40 E LFK
50 SSW TYR 45 SE BWD 30 WSW ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 45 NE AMA 20 N
GAG 10 SSE TUL 60 SSW UNO 35 W DYR HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS
...CONT... 10 E DAB 60 NE EYW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD
55 ESE PRC 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 W ELY 35 SSW
EVW 20 SE CAG 45 E GUC 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN LA AND MS/AL GULF
COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH
A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN
PLAINS...A WEAK AND COMPACT T.S. MATTHEW MOVING INTO SERN LA...AND A
STRONG TROUGH PASSING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. CONVECTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LA
TODAY...AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

...LA/MS GULF COAST...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SERN LA AND SWRN MS OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF T.S. MATTHEW. SOME OF THIS INCREASE
APPEARS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN TX/WRN
LA. DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN LA
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...A SMALL AREA OF STRONGER 0-3KM SRH
COINCIDENT WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF MATTHEW
CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN AREA. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF SERN LA AND THE IMMEDIATE
MS GULF COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MATTHEW MOVES INLAND.

...AZ/NM...
STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN AZ
AND WRN NM WILL DRIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...ISOLD SMALL HAIL OR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 10/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.