[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100542
SWODY1
SPC AC 100541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 30 SSE LFK
50 SSW TYR SEP 50 N ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 55 SSE EHA 10 SSW LBL 35
E P28 35 WNW UNO 40 NW DYR HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS ...CONT... 10 E
DAB 60 NE EYW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD
55 ESE PRC 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15
ESE SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 WSW COS 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY AS STRONG WLY FLOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC
MOVES INTO CANADA.  THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN STATES TO BECOME CUT OFF AS IT TRACKS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SWRN STATES.  MEANWHILE...CUT OFF LOW LOCATED
OVER OK/TX/ERN NM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
T.S. MATTHEW IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE LA
COAST /ERN TERREBONNE PARISH/ AT OR JUST AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NWD TO WEST CENTRAL MS
BY 12Z MONDAY. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ON THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF MATTHEW AS IT MOVES INLAND TODAY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.  INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE ERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF MATTHEW WILL...HOWEVER...FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST.

IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...
THEN STRONGER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL
AND POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.