[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100048
SWODY1
SPC AC 100046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 35 SE LFK
65 NNE CLL 20 NNW TPL 55 NW AUS 25 NNW SAT 35 W ALI 30 WNW MFE
...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 NE ELP 35 WSW 4CR 55 NNE SAF 30 W TAD 40 NW
EHA 40 SSE DDC 10 NNE PNC 35 W FYV 20 S JBR 20 NE MSL 10 SE RMG AGS
20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 SE DAB 25 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLF 60 W P38 20
SSE BIH 40 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 15 W TVL 10 E RNO 15 SE WMC 60 WNW TWF
35 WNW 27U 25 SE 3DU 35 NE HLN 25 ENE 3HT 35 S BIL 10 NNE RIW 35 NW
VEL 35 W MLF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN LA EWD TO SWRN AL...
LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OF TS MATTHEW BRINGS THIS SYSTEM INLAND
ALONG THE LA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY JUST AFTER 06Z.  LOW-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES PER LIX VAD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
MATTHEW MOVES CLOSER TO LAND.  LOW LCLS AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR VALUES WILL FAVOR A GREATER THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST...WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AS THEY
APPROACH THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN LA TO SWRN AL. 

...WRN TX...
COLD UPPER LOW /-16C AT 500 MB PER AMA 00Z SOUNDING/ LOCATED JUST S
OF LBB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN TX OVERNIGHT.  30-35 KT
NLY MID-LEVEL JET OVER ERN NM IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND INTO THE
BASE OF THIS LOW BY 12Z SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES WLY.  DESPITE THE COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 10/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.