[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091608
SWODY1
SPC AC 091607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM
20 SSW SAF 35 WSW RTN 35 ENE RTN 30 E DDC 15 SW HUT 20 S CNU 20 W
FYV 50 N LIT 15 NW MKL 45 NE MSL 20 NNW RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25
E SAV ...CONT... 15 SSE MLB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 35 SE LFK
65 NNE CLL 20 NNW TPL 55 NW AUS 25 NNW SAT 35 W ALI 30 WNW MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 10 NW OLM 30 W
PDX 25 S EUG OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLF 50 W P38 45
E FAT 35 E SCK 30 W RNO 35 NE LOL 30 SW OWY 40 ESE BOI 65 WSW 27U 50
N 27U 35 NW 3HT 35 N BIL 10 NNE RIW 35 NW VEL 35 W MLF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...W TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW INVOF
LBB-AMA-TCC AS OF MID MORNING. THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SSWWD THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER...BEFORE GRADUALLY LOOPING SEWD THEN EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND
SRN ROCKIES.  DESPITE THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS W TX...12Z
SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCAPE TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-MID 70S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S.  GIVEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF
-14 TO -15 C...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

...N CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD AND MAKE
LANDFALL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SE LA COAST /SEE THE LATEST
NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS/.  SURFACE ANALYSES AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO AREAS NE-SE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THAT
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS LARGELY OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NRN
GULF.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NNEWD THERE WILL BE A GRADUALLY INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS
THE SE LA AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
INLAND SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.