[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091228
SWODY1
SPC AC 091227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MLB 25 N PIE
...CONT... 10 S BPT 45 ESE LFK 10 W LFK 20 NNW TPL 50 NE JCT 35 S
JCT 35 W ALI 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM 20 SSW SAF
35 WSW RTN 20 WSW EHA 45 ESE P28 30 NE MKO 50 NNE LIT 10 SSE DYR 45
NE MSL 20 NNW RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W OGD 25 SE ELY 35
W BIH 30 SSW TVL 20 W RNO 25 SSW WMC 30 SW OWY 40 ESE BOI 65 WSW 27U
45 N 27U 20 NNE BTM 35 NW 3HT 35 W BIL 25 NW MLD 45 W OGD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 10 NW OLM 30 W
PDX 25 S EUG OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48
STATES TODAY WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN STATES FROM
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM
SPREADING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO TROUGHS A NUMBER OF DISPARATE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES FROM A VARIETY
OF SOURCES WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS
TX/OK. A WEAK T.S. MATTHEW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NCNTRL GULF COAST
WITH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM BECOMING WRAPPED INTO THE EVOLVING
LARGER SCALE LOW ACROSS TX. DESPITE THE NUMBER OF SOURCES FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CONUS...TSTM COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY EITHER LACK OF MOISTURE OR WEAK LAPSE RATES. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST NWWD/INLAND TO PARTS OF
THE SRN PLAINS.

...LA/MS/AL GULF COAST...
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF T.S. MATTHEW WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGIONS OF LA/MS/AL THIS PERIOD. LATEST ETA BRINGS MATTHEW
INLAND TO THE WEST OF NEW ORLEANS BY LATE THIS EVENING WHILE
GFS...SREF...AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FCSTS SHOW A SLOWER NNEWD
MOVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST WILL ALSO BE AREAS WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND COULD PROMOTE ISOLD STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FAVOR KEEPING LOW PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER A BRIEF
TORNADO OR A COUPLE OF TSTM INDUCED WIND GUSTS.

...NRN GREAT BASIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...AND LOW
STATIC STABILITY...ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND PACIFIC FRONT MAY
PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TX/OK/AR...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AND LIFTED INTO LARGER SCALE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN AREAS
OF WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND BRIEFLY INTENSIFY.
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE
PULSE/MULTICELL IN NATURE. WHILE A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE POTENTIALLY
STRONGER STORMS PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 10/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.