[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081944
SWODY1
SPC AC 081942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE
25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE
JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW ...CONT... 50 SE ELP 30 NE CNM
40 S LBB 60 SSW CDS 20 NE ADM 45 WNW FYV 15 SSE UIN 35 ENE DBQ 15 SW
VOK EAU 35 N MSP 30 ENE BRD 15 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA
50 ESE SLE 50 NNE MFR 4BK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING ACROSS
SWRN TX/EXTREME SERN NM.  MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW
THREE MAIN ZONES OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT.  ONE IS ALONG A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG/W OF THE ANTELOPE RIDGE IN LEA COUNTY
NM.  THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE KERMIT/WINK AND PECOS
REGIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER SWRN TX TERRAIN AND...IN PARTICULAR...THE PEAKS
SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 90 WHERE MLCAPE HAS RISEN TO 1500-2000 J/KG.  A
THIRD ZONE OF INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NM.  THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLE.  FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM IS RATHER
WEAK /LESS THAN 20 KTS/ AND...CONSEQUENTLY...MULTICELL STORM
STRUCTURES ARE ANTICIPATED.  STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

...SRN LA...
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NWD ONTO THE UPPER TX COAST FROM
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN.  EAST OF THE
TROUGH...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.  BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
AND MOVE NEWD INTO MAINLY SRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INFLUX OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED TSTMS WITH ISOLD
TORNADOES OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IN SRN LA...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.