[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081630
SWODY1
SPC AC 081628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 25 NNW INK
65 SSW CDS 10 SE CSM 20 NW PNC 35 SSW P35 15 N CID 35 SSE LSE 15 SSW
EAU 35 N MSP 30 ENE BRD 15 E INL ...CONT... 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25
NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE
JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA
50 ESE SLE 50 NNE MFR 4BK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS
THE CNTRL U.S. WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE NE PACIFIC
CONTINUES E INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  THE CNTRL STATES TROUGH IS
COMPOSED OF NUMEROUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.  SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
FEATURES IN NW MN AND NW KS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AS THEY HEAD
GENERALLY SEWD.  FARTHER S...MORE DIFFUSE IMPULSE NOW NEARING THE TX
BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE E IN SRN TX LATER TODAY.

IN THE GULF...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL PERSIST S OF LA. 
WHILE THE ETA SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ASHORE NEAR LFT
BY 12Z SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE PRESSURE TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT MAIN LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

...TX BIG BEND...
A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SW
TX AND THE TX BIG BEND...WHERE AN AXIS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY PERSIST...WELL AHEAD OF COOL SURGE DROPPING S ACROSS THE WRN
PART OF THE STATE.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AVERAGING IN THE LOW 60S
AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C...HEATING SHOULD BOOST
MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH 20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY YIELD HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...SRN LA/SE TX...
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
OFFSHORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN/
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE NWRN GULF CST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 WITH TIME...TRUE MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SRN
LA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SE TX...WHERE LOW LEVEL FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT MAY YIELD
A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

...UPR MS VLY...
STRONG UVV AHEAD OF IMPULSE NOW IN NW MN MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS
OVER PARTS OF WI/UPR MI AND PERHAPS NE MN LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 10/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.