[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081233
SWODY1
SPC AC 081231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 25 NNW INK
65 SSW CDS 10 SE CSM 20 NW PNC 35 SSW P35 DBQ 35 ESE VOK 15 N IMT 70
ENE CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N
POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB
35 SSE CEW ...CONT... 20 NNW BLI 15 NNE OLM SLE 45 SE EUG 45 NE MFR
15 SE LMT 40 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 25 SSW EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE FLOW REGIME OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THIS PERIOD. A PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
NRN STREAM...ONE MOVING ASHORE OVER BC...THE OTHER DIGGING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WILL SPREAD STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. SRN SEGMENT OF A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE WRN STATES WILL SINK SEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THIS TROUGH
WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE CNTRL U.S. TROUGHS...AN
EXTENSIVE AND DEEP BELT OF CONFLUENT SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE NWD
TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.

...LA GULF COAST...
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING GULF LOW. THIS WILL SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ACROSS THE NCNTRL GULF COAST REGION...FROM THE SABINE RIVER TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. ETA IS INDICATING THAT BAND OF ASCENT AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED FROM SERN LA INTO SRN AR
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THIS AXIS...AND NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER
STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT AND INTENSIFY WITH TIME RESULTING IN INCREASING
0-1KM SRH ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST AIRMASS COUPLED STRENGTH OF SHEAR
AND FORCING SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS
SRN LA.

...WEST TX...
RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE
TRANPECOS/BIG BEND REGIONS BENEATH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GENERALLY
WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AIDED BY
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND STRENGTH
OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 10/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.