[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071956
SWODY1
SPC AC 071954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 50 W ROW 60
WSW TCC 35 E MCK 20 W BKX 40 ESE INL ...CONT... 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA
25 ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN NM/SWRN-S TX...
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IDENTIFIABLE LARGE SCALE
INFLUENCES...TSTM INITIATION WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY HEATING/
LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN NM/SWRN TX
THIS AFTERNOON.  COLD TROUGH ALOFT WILL EDGE EWD FROM CNTRL NM AND
CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
MORE RELAXED THAN IN RECENT DAYS...SO DESPITE VEERING IN THE
COLUMN...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.  THUS...MAINLY
MULTICELL ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS ISOLD
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO THE
TERRAIN.

...TX PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN OK...
AREA WOULD SEEMINGLY BE IN A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING
WAVE OVER NRN OK...BUT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW CORE OF A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL ROTATING INTO THE KAMA AREA.  VSBL PICTURES
SHOW MDT CU DEVELOPING VCNTY KAMA AND SBCAPES HAVE RECOVERED TO
BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG.  AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD AND HEATING
CONTINUES...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP.  TIME SERIES OF THE KAMA VWP
SHOWS THAT THE MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKENING AS LEAD IMPULSE
MOVES FARTHER AWAY.  THUS...MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WILL PROBABLY BE
THE PREDOMINATE MODE WITH ISOLD HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

...ARKLATEX NWD TO ERN OK...
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  STRONGER TSTMS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORING AREAS FROM NERN OK/SERN KS SWD TO NCNTRL TX...ALONG THE
TAIL END OF AN IMPULSE MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN OK ATTM.  OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS EJECTED FROM EARLIER WRN OK TSTM COMPLEX MAY
AUGMENT UPDRAFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
TROPICAL PLUME ADVECTING NWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.  HERE... POCKETS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUN HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  

GLANCING EFFECTS OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MAY AUGMENT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLD MINI-SUPERCELL
ANYWHERE IN ERN OK SWD TO THE ARKLATEX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. 
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/HIGH WINDS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND BE LARGELY DIURNAL. 

...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SRN LA...
DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE
WRN GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
IN ARCS AND PROPAGATING NWWD FROM THE WATER INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
 STRONGEST TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
MATAGORDA BAY. 

18Z RUC AGREES WITH 09Z ENSEMBLES...MAINTAINING WEAKER LOW-MIDLEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR THAN THE 12Z ETA SUGGESTS.  NONETHELESS... GIVEN LOW LCL
ENVIRONMENT AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SERN TX INTO
SWRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.