[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071626
SWODY1
SPC AC 071624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA 25
ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 50 W ROW
60 WSW TCC 35 E MCK 20 W BKX 40 ESE INL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS
THE SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE GRT BASIN AND
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.  THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE COMPOSED OF
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PER STLT.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE
FEATURES WILL TRACK FROM NE NM INTO NW OK BY EARLY TONIGHT.  FARTHER
S...THE PATTERN IS LESS CLEAR...ALTHOUGH LONG LOOPS SHOW PRESENCE OF
A WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHING THE TX BIG BEND.

...SE NM INTO SW/S CNTRL TX...
UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SE NM/SW TX
TODAY IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE RELATIVELY COOL ACROSS REGION /BETWEEN MINUS 10 AND MINUS 12 C
AT 500 MB/...SO EXPECT MLCAPE TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS FROM SE NM INTO THE TRANS PECOS/GREAT BEND
REGION OF S CNTRL AND SW TX.  WITH 25-30 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
PRESENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MAIN TROUGH...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL. 
WEAK FORCING AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD... HOWEVER...LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERITY

...N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL/SE OK...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE RED RIVER VLY REGION OF
TX/OK TODAY BETWEEN /1/ LEE TROUGH IN THE PANHANDLES AND /2/
INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E. AT
UPPER LEVELS...INFLUENCE OF IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE
SHOULD PASS N AND W OF REGION. AS A RESULT...LOCAL AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK.  BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL
LIKELY BOOST MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF N TX AND SRN OK
LATER TODAY.  COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DISSIPATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EDGING EWD FROM NW TX...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE
DIURNAL STORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.


...SE TX/SRN LA...
SURFACE HEATING MAY INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE TX
LATER TODAY...ALONG NRN FRINGE OF DISTURBED WEATHER/INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NWD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/WRN GULF.  THIS
ACTIVITY...AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORMS...SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NWD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX AND LA TODAY.  MARGINAL DEGREE OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK /20 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM INTENSITY.  BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 10/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.