[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071244
SWODY1
SPC AC 071242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S SRQ 10 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 45 ESE LVS
40 SW MCK 10 NNE STC 35 ENE DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW APN AZO 40 W
EVV 55 SW JBR 25 SSW GLH 30 E GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...WITH A LARGE ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD AS FAR AS THE GREAT LAKES BY LATER
IN THE PERIOD. LIMITED INSTABILITY / SHEAR OVER THE SRN PLAINS MAY
SUPPORT A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT...BUT ELSEWHERE LITTLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.

...FAR SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION...
ORGANIZED BUT SUB-SEVERE ARC OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SERN
TX PANHANDLE SSEWD INTO WRN N TX WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD / NEWD
ACROSS TX / OK THIS MORNING / AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX AS LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMMENCES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  AS A RESULT...ONLY
LIMITED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE.  

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SERN NM INTO W TX
/ THE TRANSPECOS REGION -- BEHIND EWD-MOVING MCS.  WITH SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY MAINTAINED NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BENEATH 30 KT
MID-LEVEL WLYS NEAR BASE OF MAIN TROUGH.  ASSUMING MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AND STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-PROBABILITY
HAIL / WIND THREAT...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.


LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND MAY ALSO EVOLVE LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK / N TX. MINIMAL HEATING OF AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP...SUPPORTING SOME INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE NOW W
OF THE DFW METROPLEX.  FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS
THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...WITH STORMS REACHING
SERN OK / NERN TX BY MID AFTERNOON.

...LA / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN EXTENT OF LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE / THE WRN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE
SPREADING NWD ACROSS LA TODAY. THIS NWD ADVANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE IN QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY
SHEARED / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF / ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.