[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070515
SWODY1
SPC AC 070513

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 10 NNE
PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ELP 25 S CAO
OTG 25 SSE LSE PIA 35 NNE UNO 55 N LIT 25 SW GLH 30 ESE GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO WEST
TX DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL TX AS WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ELY COMPONENT AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SHARPENING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM
SERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS AXIS OF EXPECTED CONVERGENCE
SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BENEATH UPPER TROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY
APPROACH 1000J/KG WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL
DEVELOPMENT.  SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT
PARAMETERS APPEAR TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

...UPPER TX COAST/LA COAST...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
FEATURE WILL STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN BUT SHOULD LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE
COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER TX COAST/LA COAST SHOULD PROVE
EFFICIENT IN GENERATING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY STREAM INLAND MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR DO NOT FAVOR MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..DARROW/BOTHWELL.. 10/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.