[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070052
SWODY1
SPC AC 070050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DMN 45 N SVC 30
SSE INW 25 N 4HV 45 NNW VEL 15 SSE CPR 40 E 81V 40 NNE PHP 45 S PIR
30 S MHN 35 E MCK 25 WNW CNK 50 ESE OMA 40 NE P35 35 SE SZL 20 WSW
HRO 40 NNW ELD 40 ENE HEZ 40 SE MOB ...CONT... 25 SE SRQ 15 SE VRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WEST TX...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AS STRONGEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE FROM
SWRN TX INTO CENTRAL KS.  DESPITE THE APPROACHING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ACROSS TX IS WEAK WITH THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION OBSERVED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE LLJ
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN
MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR WEST TX
AND NRN MEXICO.  CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SPREAD ATOP MUCH COOLER
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WEDGED IN ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...WWD TO THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  00Z SOUNDING FROM MAF SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CAP OBSERVED AROUND 780MB. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST TX WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION EARLY...OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE APPEARS
RATHER LOW THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 10/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.