[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061947
SWODY1
SPC AC 061946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
MRF 45 E ALM 40 WNW ROW 30 SW CVS 15 WNW LBB 45 NNE BGS 40 SE BGS 70
SW SJT 45 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 15 SSE DAB
...CONT... 30 SE DMN 30 WSW TCS 30 SSE INW 40 NNW 4HV 40 NW VEL 30
WNW CPR 15 NNW 81V 35 NE RAP 35 SSE 9V9 25 ENE SUX 30 SSE DSM 35 SE
SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 20 ESE JAN 40 SE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N 3DU 60 NNW 27U
55 E BKE 45 NW BNO 45 NE RDM 35 SSW EPH 65 NNW 3TH 65 N 3DU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
LEAD IMPULSE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LAST NIGHT HAS NOW
MOVED NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...LEAVING MOST OF W TX AND ERN NM
IN SUBSIDENCE. DOWNWARD MOTION...INCREASED CAP AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DETRIMENTAL TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS STILL INDICATE THAT THE BODY OF THE TROUGH WAS
HANGING BACK OVER WRN NM WITH A VERY WEAK IMPULSE OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA.  THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD ONTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS EVENING.  THUS...THE LARGE SCALE WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE IN SUPPORTING CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS SERN NM AND FAR SW TX.  COMBINATION OF
HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOIST SELY FLOW AND APPROACHING
LARGE SCALE UVV WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

THOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER YESTERDAY...VEERING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IS AUGMENTING VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS.
 THUS...AS STORMS FORM...POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL EXIST
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN NM AND FAR W TX.  

TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD
THROUGH W TX OVERNIGHT.  THE LLJ...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SUGGESTING A WEAKER WARM
ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER SOUTH.  INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FARTHER
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL.  THUS...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
EVENINGS...THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME AND AT
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST.

..RACY.. 10/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.