[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061608
SWODY1
SPC AC 061606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
MRF 35 E ALM 25 ENE 4CR 35 WSW TCC 35 NW PVW 55 ESE LBB 30 SW ABI 20
SSE JCT LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DMN 30 WSW TCS
30 SSE INW 40 NNW 4HV 40 NNW VEL 30 W CPR 60 WNW CDR 35 S 9V9 25 ENE
SUX 30 SSE DSM 35 SE SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 20 ESE JAN 40 SE MOB
...CONT... 35 N PIE 15 SSE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N 3DU 60 NNW 27U
55 E BKE 45 NW BNO 45 NE RDM 35 SSW EPH 65 NNW 3TH 65 N 3DU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER NERN
CO SWWD THROUGH SERN AZ.  MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NWWD OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC.  LARGE SURFACE RIDGING SPREADS
FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD AND NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM ERN CO SWD OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.

...PARTS OF EXTREME W TX AND SERN NM...

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY ACROSS SRN NM INTO W TX HAVE
LEFT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX WWD INTO
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS 50-60 KT
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EXTREME NRN MEXICO INTO W TX THEN TURNING
NWD ALONG BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK.  THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE UPPER JET MIRROR THE MID LEVEL JET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
WEAK JET STREAK  OF 40-50 KTS AT 250 MB THAT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO AND S CENTRAL TX INDICATING DIVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED UVVS THIS AFTERNOON IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET
STREAK.

MCS THAT AFFECTED THIS REGION WORKED OVER THE AIR MASS PRETTY WELL
AS MUCH OF THE MODEL INSTABILITY FOR TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX.  SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 1500-2500 J/KG
FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX NWD INTO W CENTRAL TX AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE REGION.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AND
THE RIO GRANDE AREA AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 10/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.