[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061235
SWODY1
SPC AC 061233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
ELP 40 NNE ALM 45 NNE 4CR 20 NE LVS 10 E CAO 60 NE AMA 10 WNW CDS 50
WSW ABI 20 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE DUG 60 SSW GNT
15 SW GCN 30 E U24 30 SE EVW 40 ESE WRL 10 SSW BKX 25 NE FOD 30 ENE
LWD 25 SSE P35 10 NW SZL 20 NW SGF 30 NNW FSM 35 ENE TXK 15 W JAN 25
ESE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N PIE 35 WNW ORL
35 NNW DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM / W TX INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES / WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH MODEST /25
TO 35 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET PERSISTING IN A CYCLONIC ARC FROM THE DESERT
SW INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...WITH BROAD
AREA OF SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF LEE TROUGH / W OF ERN U.S. SURFACE
HIGH.

...ERN NM / W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS...
UPPER VORT MAX NOW ALONG AZ / UT BORDER -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH -- IS MOVING SEWD ATTM AND SHOULD CURVE EWD TOWARD THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  AS ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT E
OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SELY WITH TIME
ALLOWING A NWWD RETURN OF MODEST MOISTURE.  DAYTIME HEATING OF
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW / CONVERGENCE NEAR
LEE TROUGH ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.


ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS.  ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL.  

WITH TIME...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE
ENEWD-MOVING MCSS.  THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH OK / WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT...DRIER / LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF
SEVERE THREAT. 

...PARTS OF ERN CO / WRN KS...
WEAKER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FORCING / UVV ARE
ANTICIPATED NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN CO / WRN KS. HOWEVER LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING INVOF LEE TROUGH BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW / VORT MAX SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.