[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060016
SWODY1
SPC AC 060014

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
ELP 25 NW ALM 45 N ALM 55 ENE 4CR 10 W CVS 45 W PVW 10 W LBB 45 SSE
LBB 55 SE MAF 20 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TLH 20 NNE SSI
...CONT... 55 ESE DUG 55 ENE SAD 40 NNW INW 35 ESE SGU 25 WSW MLF 35
W DPG 30 WSW MLD JAC 30 SSW WRL 50 NE CPR 45 NW CDR 20 E MHN 30 SSE
RSL 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N HEZ 30 WSW PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
NM AND SWRN TX...

...SERN NM/SWRN TX...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
ERN NM INTO SWRN TX AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EWD ACROSS NM AND SRN CO. THE STRONGEST STORMS /INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS/ ARE OCCURRING FROM VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW N OF ELP TO
ALONG AND JUST N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
SEWD TO N OF INK AND S OF MAF. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE MAF/INK
AREAS WWD TO CNM/ROW WHERE 0-1 KM SRH HAS INCREASED TO 150-200
M2/S2. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG/ PRESENT ACROSS SWRN TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS TONIGHT ALONG
DEVELOPING LLJ AXIS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS
REGION...PERMIAN BASIN AND TX S PLAINS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL MAY EXTEND FARTHER N IN ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS
ROOTED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 10/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.