[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051952
SWODY1
SPC AC 051950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
ELP 10 NW TCS 40 W ONM 30 SE GNT 25 E GNT 50 NNE SAF 40 NNE LVS 45 W
AMA 15 E PVW 15 SSW MAF 70 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 55 ENE SAD
40 W GUP 55 WNW GCN 45 ESE U31 BAM 40 ENE OWY 40 SSW WEY 15 NNW COD
30 NNW GCC 15 NNE RAP 15 SSE MHN 50 N DDC 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N
HEZ 30 WSW PNS ...CONT... 15 W CTY 25 WNW JAX 35 NW SAV 15 NNW AHN
25 SSW HSS 35 SE TRI 35 S GSO 20 NE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
18Z ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN NM THROUGH THE
KABQ AREA THEN SEWD TO NORTH OF KMAF.  SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 50-60F
HAVE BEEN ADVECTING NWWD FROM W TX INTO CNTRL NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 METERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
NM INTO W TX TONIGHT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.  SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/SW
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL NM...THEN MOVE NEWD ATOP THE
COLD DOME IN PLACE OVER NERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL.  OTHER STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS SRN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAVORABLE
MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME.

THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OF 45-50 KTS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS UPPER LOW WILL AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR. 
SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS EVIDENCED ALREADY IN THE KABQ
VCNTY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT WITH THE MORE SURFACE BASED CELLS OVER
CNTRL/SCNTRL NM.  ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY
AS CELLS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AND APPROACH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM KABQ TO KROW.

THE SELY H95-H85 JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SWRN TX
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  TSTMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S. 
ONE MCS...LARGELY ELEVATED...WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO
THE TX PNHDL WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLD HAIL RISK.  ANOTHER MCS MAY
EVOLVE FROM CNTRL/SRN NM AND MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO W/SWRN TX.  HERE...ALONG WITH A HAIL RISK...DAMAGING WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AS SELY MOIST INFLOW AIDS IN FORWARD
PROPAGATION.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET ALOFT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  SITUATION WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING.

...DEEP S TX...
TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A FRONT WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
WEAK...MORNING/RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PARCELS IN THE
H85-H5 LAYER ARE LESS MOIST THAN NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...PULSE
SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS.

..RACY.. 10/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.