[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051611
SWODY1
SPC AC 051610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
DMN 35 NNE SVC 35 SSE GNT 30 E 4SL 40 NNE LVS 20 S CAO 10 WSW PVW 15
S BGS 30 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 30 NW SVC
55 E SOW 30 SW GCN 45 ESE U31 BAM 40 ENE OWY 40 SSW WEY 15 NNW COD
30 NNW GCC 15 NNE RAP 15 SSE MHN 50 N DDC 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N
HEZ 30 WSW PNS ...CONT... 15 W CTY 25 WNW JAX 35 NW SAV 15 NNW AHN
25 SSW HSS 35 SE TRI 35 S GSO 20 NE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND W TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY IS DRAGGING BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. AS NEXT STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND SWRN CANADA.  ATTENTION WILL BE WITH ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL CO BY 06/12Z TAKING ONE SHORTWAVE EWD
ACROSS NM INTO KS AND BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH SWWD ACROSS AZ BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN WY SWD ALONG THE CO
FRONT RANGE INTO S CENTRAL NM.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO EXTREME W TX...

MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER PARTS OF NM
AS WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 60-80 KT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS SRN AZ. 
CURRENTLY...SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE LAYING OUT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WWD/NWWD INTO CENTRAL NM.
 MORNING MODEL DATA INDICATES 45-55 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND
NEWD FROM SERN AZ INTO E CENTRAL NM COUPLING WITH SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OF 15-25 KT THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH ETA AND ETAKF TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 30-35 KT.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/0-3 KM HELICITY TO 35-45 KT AND 300 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. 
THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM INTO AT LEAST SERN CO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FEATURE
EXTENDING N-S ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.

AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SERN CO AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD INTO NERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.  THIS COULD BRING
SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN NM INTO EXTREME W TX THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
INTO THE SERN QUARTER OF CO TODAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WERE
NEARLY A DOZEN REPORTS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY.  A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MANAGED TO ENHANCE THE SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
RESULTING IN ENHANCED ROTATION IN SOME OF THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. 
TODAY...HAVING THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
INTO CENTRAL CO...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS PROVIDING THERE IS
SUFFICIENT HEATING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...HAVE MOVED LOW
PROBABILITIES NWD FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT
EXPECTED HEATING COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE HORIZONTAL SHEAR COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

..MCCARTHY.. 10/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.