[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051233
SWODY1
SPC AC 051231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW
DMN 40 E SAD 65 SW GNT 35 W ABQ 55 SSW LVS 20 WSW CVS 50 SSW LBB 70
WSW SJT 35 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW DUG 30 NNW SAD
55 WSW GUP 25 SE GCN 40 S SGU 35 WSW MLF 40 SSW DPG 35 SW MLD 35 NNE
JAC 40 WSW WRL 35 N RWL 45 NE LAR 40 ENE SNY 35 N RSL 30 NW END 55
NNE ADM 40 WSW TXK 35 NNE ESF 40 SW GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CEW 10 NE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NM INTO
PORTIONS OF W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
MOVE EWD WITH TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH
ASSOCIATED BELT OF STRONGER FLOW REMAINING INVOF THE U.S. / MEXICO
BORDER FROM SRN CA EWD TO W TX.

AT THE SURFACE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS
CENTRAL NM / THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN OK.  HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES GENERALLY SELY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD BECOME LESS
IMPORTANT WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT UVV FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF NM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TX...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS VORT MAX IS FOCUSED
ACROSS NM ATTM...WHERE PERSISTENT / STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING. 
WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ AND A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NM AND INTO W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS
REGION...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS VIGOROUS. 
HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT / WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
ANTICIPATED/.  

STRONGEST CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NM SEWD
ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
 RESULTING THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS SELY
LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFIES ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.