[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050045
SWODY1
SPC AC 050043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
DMN 15 WNW TCS 35 N ONM 55 SSW LVS 40 ESE CVS 30 WSW LBB 30 SE INK
70 WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 45 SE SOW
20 NE INW 45 NNE DRA 45 SW BIH 25 E SCK 35 E EKA 30 S MFR 90 WNW OWY
30 NNE TWF 30 N JAC 35 SE SHR 40 SSW RAP 25 NE AKO 25 SSW LAA 25 WNW
GAG 30 N OKC 15 S MKO 25 NNW HOT PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT ...CONT...
45 SSE CTY 35 NNW DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND
WRN TX...

...NM/WRN TX...
TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND THE TX S PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500
J/KG AND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /PER 00Z MAF SOUNDING/. IT
APPEARS THAT CAP OBSERVED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER MAY BE SLOWING
PARCEL ACCELERATIONS AND OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH OF ONGOING STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER CO
VALLEY IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM.  

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS NM AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DESPITE COOLING AND
DE-COUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER....PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 10/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.