[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 042004
SWODY1
SPC AC 042002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
ELP 10 W TCS 30 NNE ONM 45 N 4CR 65 NE 4CR 15 NNE INK 60 E FST 50 NW
DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
BPT 40 NNW BPT 10 ENE POE 45 NW LFT 15 SSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 E SOW 20
NE INW 45 NNE DRA 45 SW BIH 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO
55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 30 S AKO 50 NW GCK 45 E
DDC 35 W CNU 20 SSW JLN 50 E FSM 30 ENE PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT
...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 35 NNW DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN TX AND SWRN
LA...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS RESIDES IN WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...BOTH BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE ACROSS CNTRL TX AND THE
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A
LATER START TO HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN
NM AND W TX...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EAST.

STRONGEST HEATING WILL EXIST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM AND
FAR SW TX.  BUILD-UPS ON THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE
OVER SRN AZ. THIS WILL BE MOVING EWD AND MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASING TSTMS THIS EVENING.  VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

FARTHER EAST...THE SITUATION IS NOT AS CERTAIN OWING TO CLOUD
COVER...MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE PRESENT.  THERE
HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE S PLAINS OF W TX.  ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
BOUNDARIES...BUT THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWER THAN FARTHER
WEST.

OVERNIGHT...TSTM CLUSTERS...LARGELY ELEVATED...MAY EXPAND EWD AND
SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN TX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...ERN TX AND SWRN LA...
MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER SABINE RVR VLY AT
MID-AFTERNOON WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD INTO CNTRL TX. 
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TSTM COMPLEX REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  INFLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED TO THE
COAST. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
AND IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.

...CNTRL/N TX...
TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE.  MOST OF THE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EWD...JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM DOWNSTREAM MCS.  IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD INITIATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  THUS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
TSTMS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY...BUT ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SEVERE.

..RACY.. 10/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.