[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041615
SWODY1
SPC AC 041614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE
ELP 15 SSW ALM 30 W 4CR 45 SSE SAF 10 NW TCC 75 NW ABI 30 SSE SJT 20
W HDO 25 WNW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 S AYS 55
N SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 E SOW 20 NE INW 50
S SGU 35 SSE NFL 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO 55 SW 27U
40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 30 S AKO 50 NW GCK 45 E DDC 35 W
CNU 20 SSW JLN 50 E FSM 30 ENE PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. WITH LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEAK
SRN BRANCH WITH ZONAL TYPE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER.  MOST ACTIVE
STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK/N CENTRAL TX.  MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME WRN
NY/NERN OH SWWD INTO SERN MO...THEN CONTINUED AS A QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM. 
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF TX ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT IS MOVING
SWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX.

...S CENTRAL INTO SERN TX...

MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SERN NM/W TX
ESEWD POSSIBLY INTO SERN TX.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVITY INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN TX
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.

PRIND THAT CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SEWD/SWD INTO
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS ENHANCED BY SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS S TX
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE UVVS S OF THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY.  MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN PLAINS OF SERN NM AND W TX...

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN SD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO IL BY
05/12Z.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS W TX AND
SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
 INTO THE REGION.  SOME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR OVER THIS
REGION WITH SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG.  THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KT DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  LATEST POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AFTERNOON PROFILES WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3
KM.  THUS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT
SEEMS TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO OCCUR NEAR THE SSE-NNW SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SW TX INTO SERN NM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

..MCCARTHY.. 10/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.