[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
ELP 30 ESE TCS 30 SE ABQ 45 SSE SAF 10 NW TCC 75 NW ABI 40 SSW ABI
50 S SJT 30 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PFN 30 S AYS
40 E CAE 55 NNE RWI WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 55 E SOW 55
WNW GUP 35 WSW PGA 35 SSE NFL 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE
BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 40 NE LIC 25 SSE DDC
40 NE MKO 40 E PBF 30 W LUL 10 ESE GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NERN
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AHEAD
OF STRONG /1030 MB/ CANADIAN HIGH.  BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC / GULF COASTS.

MEANWHILE...WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING FORECAST ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN PLAINS.  WITH COMBINATION OF MODEST MOISTURE /
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT CONVECTIVE THREAT TO PERSIST.  

...PARTS OF ERN NM INTO W TX...
SCATTERED / ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION ATTM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SWD THROUGH THE DAY.  UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THIS AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW SLOW SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  

EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON --
IN ZONE OF FRONTAL LIFTING ACROSS WRN / CENTRAL TX AS WELL AS WITHIN
BROAD ELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO EVOLVE N OF FRONT.

WITH 30 TO 40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS
REGION ABOVE LOW-LEVEL ELY COMPONENT...CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL /
DAMAGING WINDS.  THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING /
OVERNIGHT...AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME LIKELY SUPPORTS CONTINUED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS/BANACOS.. 10/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.