[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031630
SWODY1
SPC AC 031628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
DMN 30 NNW SVC 55 W ONM 20 NNE ONM 35 ESE 4CR 40 NE CNM 35 SE CNM 55
WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65
NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN
35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL
10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 30 NE HEZ 20 ESE 0A8 50 E
CHA 15 ENE DAN ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN NM AND SWRN
TX...

...SRN/ERN NM AND SWRN TX...
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST TODAY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS FROM SWRN TX/SRN NM INTO E-CENTRAL NM.  THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
CLEARING/HEATING WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER SWRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING
FROM ELP YIELDS SBCAPE AROUND 2200 J/KG...WITH FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES BECOMING MORE THAN ADEQUATE.  EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NM. OTHER...MORE
ISOLATED...STORMS MAY FORM INTO E-CENTRAL NM/NRN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION.  THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES...EXPECT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AS STORMS MOVE E-SEWD
AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATE IN ONE OR TWO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DURING THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTH TX PLAINS.  

...SRN ATLANTIC...
RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY.  APPEARS
AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND SERN GA...WHILE SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW
ALOFT SUSTAINS A THREAT OF LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 10/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.