[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 032007
SWODY1
SPC AC 032005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
SAV 50 SSW AGS 10 E AGS 10 ESE CAE 30 WNW FLO 10 NE FLO 20 NE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65
NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN
35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL
10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 25 NW MGM 35 SSE AHN 45 S
CLT 20 WSW GSO 25 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SC AND A PORTION OF
ERN GA...

...ERN SC/PORTION OF ERN GA...
REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG
A LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL GA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NC...AS FORCING WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SC IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER
ASCENT.  MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FROM ERN SC INTO
PARTS OF ERN GA.  WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL
POTENTIAL...BUT DEEP WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MORE OF A WIND THREAT.

...SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NM...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS/COOL AIR
MASS HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX INTO SERN NM...
LIMITING DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS.  HOWEVER...AIR MASS FARTHER
WEST HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SWRN TX NWD INTO
SRN/CENTRAL NM WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.  MID-50S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RETURNED NEWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES ALONG A LEE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG/.

FORCING WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST OVER
NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STORMS.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AS
CURRENT STORMS OVER NRN/NERN NM MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. 
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER SWWD ACROSS SRN NM AND
FAR SWRN TX AND THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THE LACK OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS UPPER FORCING IS WEAKER OVER THIS AREA.
 THUS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER SRN NM/FAR
SWRN TX ALLOWING FOR LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN TX WITH
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY SPREADING NWD TO ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...AS A WAA REGIME INCREASES ALONG A STRENGTHENING
LLJ.

..PETERS.. 10/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.