[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031245
SWODY1
SPC AC 031243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
DMN 25 NNW SVC 60 W ONM 20 NNE ONM 30 ESE 4CR 40 NE CNM 35 SE CNM 55
WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65
NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN
35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 WSW BFF 10 ENE LHX 40 N EHA 30 SE DDC 55 WSW
TUL 40 SSW ADM 35 S BWD 20 NW AUS 40 NNW BPT 25 W LFT 35 NE MOB 50 E
CHA DAN 20 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM  AND
ADJACENT W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
TWO MID-LEVEL FEATURES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM JET -- ONE MOVING
ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM -- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREATS ACROSS ERN AZ / THE
SRN TWO-THIRDS OF NM / W TX AND SERN GA / SC / SRN NC RESPECTIVELY. 


...ERN AZ / CENTRAL AND SRN NM / W TX...
SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ATTM ACROSS THE
SWRN CONUS...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS -- ONE OVER NERN AZ / NWRN NM AND THE OTHER
ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX.  

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS
ENTIRE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MODESTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS YIELDS MEAN-LAYER CAPE MAINLY AOB 1000 J/KG.  DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW / 40 TO 50
KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR
HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT
IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM INTO FAR W TX...WHERE MOST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- IS
ANTICIPATED.  

STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...ALONG
WITH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.

...SERN GA / MUCH OF SC / S CENTRAL AND SERN NC...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN GA...WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EWD / SEWD ACROSS ERN GA
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MORNING / AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...MODERATE WLY FLOW THOUGH A DEEP
LAYER SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW OF THE STRONGER / MORE ORGANIZED STORMS -- PRIMARILY THIS
AFTERNOON.

..GOSS/BANACOS.. 10/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.