[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030036
SWODY1
SPC AC 030035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E DUG 15 E SOW 50
NE FLG 50 ESE SGU 35 NNW LAS 25 NNW NID 40 SE FAT 50 ENE SCK 40 SW
SVE 45 N OWY 35 ESE IDA 15 SSE RKS 30 S LAR 30 NE DEN 45 NE CAO 40
NW CNM 40 SW FST 25 WSW HDO 25 SE SAT 40 N HOU 40 E MLU 15 SSE MSL
30 NE TRI 20 ENE AOO 20 SW ART ...CONT... 35 ENE EFK 20 SSE MWN 25
SSE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 SE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE JAX 55 SSE CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NJ SWD ACROSS ERN NC...
EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY SWWD ACROSS WV TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. CLUSTERS OF
STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG FRONT OVER ERN PA...AS WELL AS ALONG AND E
OF TROUGH IN LEE OF CNTRL APPALACHIANS FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY SWD INTO
ERN NC. NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SERN VA/ERN NC
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO A SECONDARY...WEAKER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG/ OBSERVED ON 00Z WAL SOUNDING...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
AND ORGANIZED TSTMS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING WILL BE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM NJ SWD INTO ERN NC. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE 6-7 KM /AS OBSERVED IN 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z...IN ADDITION TO A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
EVENT OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 10/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.