[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 021959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN 15
WSW ORF GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY 15 ESE LYH 15 SSE PSB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW
40 S FLG 60 NNE IGM 30 WNW LAS 30 N NID 40 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 40 SW
SVE 20 W OWY 35 SE IDA 25 SSW RKS 30 SSW LAR 15 NW DEN 10 SW TAD 30
NW CNM 15 ENE FST 55 WSW JCT 25 WSW AUS 55 NE CLL GLH 40 N MSL 45
ESE LOZ 15 NE PIT 30 NW ROC ...CONT... 10 N EFK 15 NNW LCI 25 SSE
PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 20 SW DAB
35 NW AGR 40 SW AGR 35 ENE FMY 15 NNE PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...ERN PA SWD TO CENTRAL NC...
DEEP WLY FLOW /GENERALLY ABOVE 1 KM/ WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/
SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES
NEWD INTO QUEBEC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON REGIONAL
RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM WRN NY TO WRN PA...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG A LEE
TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF VA/NC.  FULL SUN OVER NC TO SRN DELMARVA
HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  MORE CLOUDS NWD ACROSS PA HAS
LIMITED AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AOB 500 J/KG.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA...MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.  THIS WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VA/NC ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS AND EVENTUALLY WITH COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO THE SAME AIR MASS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

...S TX...
COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS
OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS DEEP S TX. 
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG/ ALONG
THE TX COAST INTO SRN TX IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.  LACK OF
UPPER FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FRONTAL
FORCING AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.  ALTHOUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY.

..PETERS.. 10/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.