[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021636
SWODY1
SPC AC 021634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN
DOV GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY LYH MRB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N EFK 15 NNW LCI
25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W
PBI MIA ...CONT... 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 40 S FLG 65 NE IGM 35 SSW BIH
50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE 20 W OWY 35 SE IDA 25 SSW RKS 30 SSW LAR 15 NW
DEN 25 WNW TAD 35 SW TCC 20 NW ABI 30 WNW ACT 40 SSW GGG GLH 45 E
MKL 25 ESE SDF 10 NNW CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY N INTO HUDSON BAY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPR
GRT LKS SWEEPS E/NE INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISTINCT FROM THE SRN PLNS E TO THE NC CST. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL IN THIS BAND OF FLOW OVER NM/SW TX
...DOWNSTREAM FROM DISTURBANCE OFF THE SRN CA CST.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APLCNS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON VLY ACROSS CNTRL MD AND CNTRL
NC INTO N GA BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN TX...WRN PART OF SAME FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...AUGMENTED BY
OUTFLOW FROM MCS NOW OVER THE REGION NEAR SAT AND N OF VCT.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE
CORRIDOR IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS FROM NC NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL
MD/S CNTRL PA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SLIGHTLY STEEPEN AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE CROSSING THE ERN GRT LKS.  COUPLED WITH FAIRLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT MEAN MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM AROUND
1000 TO POSSIBLY 1500 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS STRONGEST
UVV LIFTS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL ALSO BE
WEAK AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED S OF THE PA/NY
BORDER.  BUT DIURNAL HEATING OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A CONDITIONAL
SLIGHT RISK FORECAST REMAINS WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF PA/MD/VA/NC. 
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

...S TX...
MULTICELL MCS NOW OVER S TX IS PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY S LATER TODAY AS SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS
GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER REGION. WLY FLOW ABOVE FRONT MAY ALSO
SUPPORT SOME BACK-BUILDING/WWD DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. 
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.  BUT
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS
SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW DIMINISHES.

S OF THE S TX MCS/S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SURFACE HEATING MAY
INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE S TX CSTL PLN AND OVER PARTS OF
DEEP S TX...WHERE STRONG HEATING OF WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT  WILL
BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG.  WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT
ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.

...S CNTRL AND SRN NM/FAR SW TX..
SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT WWD IN
WAKE OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING S TX AND POINTS E WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ ACROSS
PARTS OF NM AND FAR SW TX LATER TODAY. FACTORS OFFSETTING MORE
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE INCREASED MIXING AND GRADUAL
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD INTO MEXICO. 
NEVERTHELESS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...SETUP MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  PROXIMITY OF
SRN STREAM JET WILL PROVIDE AMPLE /50 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND.  BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND WEAK RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.