[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021237
SWODY1
SPC AC 021235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN
DOV GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY LYH MRB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK PWM
...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI MIA
...CONT... 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 30 N FLG 55 WNW GCN 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE
SCK 40 SW SVE OWY MLD 25 SSW RKS 45 NE CAG 4FC 40 W RTN 50 W CVS 60
NW ABI SEP SHV GLH BWG 25 WNW CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NC TO ERN PA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SYNOPTIC
SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...AND WSWLY
SRN STREAM JET FROM NRN BAJA ACROSS AR TO WV.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LS/WI/UPPER MI -- IS
FCST TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF MEAN TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH
TODAY...AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONT AND SWRN QUE.  ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...NWRN
LA...TO BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX -- IS FCST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS ERN
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY END OF PERIOD.  FRONT SHOULD BE
PRECEDED BY AROUND 02/18Z BY SFC TROUGH FROM NC PIEDMONT NNEWD TO
CENTRAL NY.  COLD FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY
AND S TX INTO NWRN GULF BY 03/12Z.  WRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL
PENETRATE SWRN NM AND WEAKEN.  A FEW AREAS OF MARGINAL TO SLGT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY FROM NERN
CONUS TO SWRN DESERTS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT OVER MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS TODAY...MAINLY INVOF PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  MAIN CONCERN SHOULD BE
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS...DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 03/00Z. 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EACH FCST TO STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT DURING DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK
AREA...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION.  BOTH LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SIZE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD
EXTENT...RESULTING IN UP TO 250 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM
SHEARS ERN PA/NRN MD.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH BOW
ECHOES AND ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS.  HOWEVER...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER
RESTRICTING SFC INSOLATION...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT IN A
FEW AREAS OF PERSISTENT CLOUD BREAKS.  WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL VA SWD...EXPECT MLCAPES TO RANGE FROM
800-1500 J/KG.

...TX COASTAL PLAIN...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS MULTICELL TSTMS ONGOING IN LINEAR MCS ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT -- FROM TOLEDO BEND AREA OF TX/LA BORDER WSWWD
TOWARD SAT.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SWD TOWARD MID/UPPER TX
COAST...AND REMAINS OF MCS MAY BACKBUILD/PROPAGATE SSWWD TOWARD
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  ANY TSTMS INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY
BE UNDERCUT BY CAA RELATED TO PRIOR OUTFLOWS AS WELL AS FRONT
ITSELF.  HOWEVER...AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND COAST SHOULD HEAT
DIABATICALLY DURING DAY...COMBINING WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S
F TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG.  WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE
WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  ISOLATED HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM
STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL TSTMS.

...S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM...FAR W TX...
CONTINUED FRONTAL SURGE SWWD OVER THIS REGION -- FOLLOWED BY
ISALLOBARIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CA
-- WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ELY FLOW COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS
TODAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY VEERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN UP
TO 60 KT 0-6 KM NET SHEAR...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN ANY
SUSTAINED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK
CAPE...RELATED TO POSTFRONTAL NEGATIVE THETAE ADVECTION. 
HOWEVER...HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.