[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020512
SWODY1
SPC AC 020511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
ILG 35 ESE RIC GSB 30 W SOP 45 WNW GSO ROA 10 E EKN 40 SE LBE 20 SSW
PSB 10 SSE IPT 20 W ABE 10 E ILG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW
30 N FLG 55 WNW GCN 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 45 SW SVE 30 NE WMC 40 WNW
OGD 25 SSW RKS 45 NE CAG 15 NE 4FC 40 W RTN 50 W CVS 35 NW MAF 20
ESE BWD 20 WSW SHV 25 E GLH 25 ENE SDF 25 WNW CLE ...CONT... 15 NW
EFK PWM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI
MIA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF STRONG
CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL REMAIN A
DISTINCT FEATURE FROM COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE SRN STATES. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL START SATURDAY
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...TO CNTRL TX. NRN
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE MOST RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AIDED BY
MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRIMARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM LAKE ERIE TO NRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE OFF THE
ERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FAR WRN EXTENSION OF THE SAME
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM BENEATH
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW.

...MID ATLANTIC...
ANTECEDENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
THIS DESTABILIZATION MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD
FROM THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...
INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD AID DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND LEAD TO AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER FORCING AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NWD INTO PA. RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY
WHILE MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE
LIMITED BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS
JUSTIFY AT LEAST 15 PERCENT HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES.

..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 10/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.