[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301248
SWODY1
SPC AC 301246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD SAT 15 NW
ACT 25 SE DUA 35 ESE FYV 30 N POF 25 WSW BMG 40 NE FDY 35 SW ERI 25
ENE PSB 25 NNW BWI 25 WNW DAN 15 W CAE 30 SE TLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
NOW ENTERING THE SRN HI PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES E/NE TOWARD CONFLUENCE OVER THE GRT LKS/OH VLY.  AS MAIN
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK REORGANIZES OVER N TX/ERN OK AND NW AR LATER
TODAY...EXPECT WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER THE TN VLY.  PRESENCE
OF EXISTING BAND OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION...AND PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE S ATLANTIC COAST WILL...HOWEVER... LIKELY
LIMIT DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE GULF CST
STATES.  

...CNTRL GULF CST TO TN VLY...
SWLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN
GULF/WRN ATLANTIC HAS MAINTAINED WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB
ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST REGION /PER 12Z RAOBS/.  WITH SRN PLNS
UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD...EXPECT MINIMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE IN THIS LAYER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND LIKELY KEEP AVERAGE MLCAPE AOB
500 J/KG IN ZONE OF PRE COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE INFLOW OVER SE LA/SE
MS AND SRN AL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK AS MAIN PORTION OF UPPER SYSTEM PASSES
BY WELL TO THE NORTH.  AS A RESULT...PROSPECTS FOR DEEP...SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION APPEAR LIMITED IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

IN CONTRAST...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG/BEHIND COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN LA INTO CNTRL MS AND
NRN AL LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT.  ONE OR TWO SUCH CELLS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INTERACT WITH THE 50+ KT DEEP
SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR TO YIELD A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST.  BUT
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES...MOIST PROFILES AND LARGELY
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 11/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.