[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301613
SWODY1
SPC AC 301611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD SAT 30 WSW
TYR 30 N TXK 45 N LIT 20 SW CGI 15 SW BMG 35 S FDY 30 WSW IPT 20 WNW
ILG 30 N NHK 20 ESE DAN 15 W CAE 30 SE TLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL INVERSION/CAP NEAR
700 MB AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THIS...LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH ARE SUPPORTING MARGINAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ATTM.  EXPECT AN AXIS OF MARGINAL SBCAPE WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT NEAR
THE FRONT POSSIBLY BOOSTING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS THROUGH H7
INVERSION / AS IS NOW OCCURRING OVER S-CENTRAL LA/.  THIS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN RICHER GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST FROM SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS/AL. STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
DIMINISH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  STILL...GIVEN LOW LCLS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TO ROOT INTO A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A
TORNADO ARE WARRANTED.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 11/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.