[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300539
SWODY1
SPC AC 300537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD SAT 15 NW
ACT 25 SE DUA 35 ESE FYV 30 N POF 25 WSW BMG 40 NE FDY 35 SW ERI 25
ENE PSB 25 NNW BWI 20 E DAN 15 W CAE 30 SE TLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFYING SRN PLAINS UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ENEWD 
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...REACHING THE MIDWEST
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MS VLY WILL DEEPEN TO A 995 MB LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
UPPER OH VLY BY 12Z WED.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO.  PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS.

...LOWER MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH...
SWLY UPPER FLOW HAS ADVECTED A STOUT CAP ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VLY/DEEP SOUTH AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z LCH/JAN/LIX SOUNDINGS. 
SO...DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF 60S/LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS NWD...MINIMAL INSOLATION EXPECTED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
WILL KEEP THREATS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS MINIMAL.  MOREOVER...
STRONGER LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS /200+ METERS/ WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH MUCH WEAKER ZONE OF ASCENT BRUSHING THE GULF COASTAL
REGION.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE TSTMS TO BE POST-FRONTAL/ELEVATED. IF ANY STRONGER NEAR-SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY
OCCUR.

..RACY/GUYER.. 11/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.