[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300045
SWODY1
SPC AC 300044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N BRO 45 S LRD
...CONT... 45 NW DRT 15 NE BWD 20 ESE MLC CGI 30 SSW OWB 55 E BWG 40
NNE GAD 45 SW TCL 40 SSW LUL 40 SE 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S TX...
00Z ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT ON A KSHV-KSAT-KDRT LINE.  THIS
FRONT WILL REACH THE LOWER MS VLY...NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND DEEP S
TX BY 12Z.  SHALLOW CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT ALL AFTERNOON
IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SERN TX/NWRN LA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
OWING TO CAP NOTED ON 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS.  AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE COAST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP. BUT...THE
STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT.  COMBINATION OF
THE CAP AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE SUGGEST TSTM LIFE CYCLES ARE APT
TO BE SHORT WITH ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE HAIL
OR GUSTY WINDS.  FARTHER NE...SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY AND WILL SUPPORT MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM
CLUSTERS.  HERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO SEVERE TSTMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. 

MEANWHILE...SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL CONVECTION INCREASING WEST OF
KDRT AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF
THE NM UPPER LOW.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND NEWD ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN TX AND INTO PARTS OF SERN OK AND AR OVERNIGHT.  00Z FWD
SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATTM.
BUT...AS THE LAYER BELOW 500 MB MOISTENS AGAIN THIS EVENING...
MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG AND POTENTIAL CLOUD TOPS AOA MINUS 20C WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING.

..RACY.. 11/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.