[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291957
SWODY1
SPC AC 291955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N BRO 45 S LRD
...CONT... 45 NW DRT 40 NNE ABI 10 SSW TUL 55 ENE TUL 20 SE UMN CGI
30 SSW OWB 55 E BWG 40 NNE GAD 45 SW TCL 40 SSW LUL 40 SE 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/SERN TX...

SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN RECENT
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN
TX.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS YET TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING...LIKELY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION.  SUSTAINED SWLY
TRAJECTORY ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HOWEVER ALLOWED DEEPER
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO EMERGE WITHIN BROADER WARM CONVEYOR BELT NEAR
THE ARKLATEX.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY.

RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE ONLY REAL POSSIBILITY FOR DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SAT AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG WIND SHIFT MAY AID THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  EVEN SO IT APPEARS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT INTO
SERN TX OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO.

..DARROW.. 11/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.