[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291615
SWODY1
SPC AC 291614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST MON NOV 29 2004

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 40 NNE ABI
10 SSW TUL 55 ENE TUL 20 SE UMN CGI 30 SSW OWB 55 E BWG 40 NNE GAD
45 SW TCL 40 SSW LUL 35 SSE HUM ...CONT... 65 N BRO 45 S LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TODAY...WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGH REMAINING POSITIVELY-TILTED
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG UPPER JET FROM ERN NM INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WITH
ENHANCED H5 JET SPREADING NEWD AWAY FROM BASE OF TROUGH INTO NWRN
TX/OK OVERNIGHT.  ASSOCIATED SWLY LLJ WILL LIKEWISE LIFT NEWD AND
NOSE INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  AT THE SURFACE
...A COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN ITS STEADY ESEWD MOTION INTO AR AND
ERN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A LOW CENTER DEEPENING OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY OF ERN AR BY LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AND ERN TX TODAY...12Z SOUNDINGS AND LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE CAP WILL REMAIN ROBUST.  GIVEN LIMITED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND RESTRICTED HEATING WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CAP IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  12Z ETA
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS SHALLOW-CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN
FALSELY ERODING THIS STRONG CAP AND IN GENERATING MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  ETAKF AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS ARE MORE REASONABLE IN
MAINTAINING CAPPING AND SUGGESTING CAPES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AT
BEST.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP MOIST/CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF...AND
BEHIND...SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL
REPORT MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS...RATHER HIGH WBZ/FREEZING
LEVELS AND LIMITED SURFACE-BASED POTENTIAL JUSTIFIES ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 11/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.