[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291301
SWODY1
SPC AC 291259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST MON NOV 29 2004

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S
CLL 30 S AUS 25 NNE AUS 40 S TYR 35 SSW SHV 25 NNE POE 30 NW LCH 65
S CLL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N BRO 45 SSE LRD
...CONT... 10 NW DRT 10 ESE ABI 20 E FSI 10 SSW TUL 55 ENE TUL 30
NNE FYV 25 SE HRO 30 SW ARG 15 NW DYR 25 ENE BWG 30 WNW LOZ 50 ESE
LOZ 30 ENE TYS 30 N BHM 40 WSW LUL 25 SW HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF E CNTRL
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NOAM THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP CYCLONE DROPS SE ACROSS WRN HUDSON BAY. IN THE SRN
STREAM...AND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE NOW MOVING SE TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND...EXPECT THAT ELONGATED CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT ENE ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 90+ KT SWLY JET STREAK REACHING
A NW TX/CNTRL MO AXIS BY THAT TIME.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE WRN GRT LKS
AND SHARP SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NRN RCKYS WILL MAINTAIN PATTERN
OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.  THIS...IN TURN
...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHALLOW COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLNS.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR MEM TO NEAR GLS/BPT BY
12Z TUESDAY.

...S CNTRL TX INTO SRN LA...
ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY TODAY FROM NRN/ERN TX NEWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF
MO AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT DOWNSTREAM FROM FOUR CORNERS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.  RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
NWRN FRINGE OF DOMINANT ERN GULF UPPER RIDGE SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY
THREAT FOR HAIL AS THE BAND OF ASCENT SLOWLY SHIFTS E INTO THE LWR
MS AND TN VLY REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

FARTHER S...CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN ZONE OF SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL TX ENE INTO WRN/SRN LA.  BROKEN CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.  BUT COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST AVERAGE
MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG.

THIS DESTABILIZATION...ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK TROUGH
PRECEDING AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
STOUT CAP AND INITIATE A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE AREA FROM
NEAR AUS ENE TO NEAR CLL OR LFK LATER TODAY.  PROXIMITY OF STRONG
SWLY JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE AMPLE /50-60 KT/ DEEP SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ROUGHLY 7.0 DEG
C PER KM...PER OBSERVED 12Z RAOB DATA/ WILL BE PRESENT TO ENHANCE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  BUT ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL IT APPEARS
THAT AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEFORE
ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO AN IRREGULAR CLUSTER AND CONTINUES E/NEWD INTO
CNTRL LA TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM S CNTRL TX NEWD INTO N CNTRL/NE
TX...SE OK AND WRN AR AS COLD AIR UNDERCUT PLUME OF INCREASING RICH
MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.