[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290527
SWODY1
SPC AC 290525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DRT 10 ESE ABI
20 NNW ADM 20 W MKO 40 WNW FYV 50 E FSM 35 NNW LIT 30 SW ARG 15 NW
DYR 25 ENE BWG 30 WNW LOZ 50 ESE LOZ 30 ENE TYS 30 N BHM 40 WSW LUL
25 SW HUM ...CONT... 65 N BRO 45 SSE LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 
SUB-TROPICAL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE FROM NRN
MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS CONVEYOR ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. 

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT NOW OVER KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS WILL SURGE
SEWD REACHING A CNTRL AR-SCNTRL TX LINE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NRN MS-NWRN LA-DEEP S TX LINE BY 12Z TUE.  

...SCNTRL TX TO THE SABINE RVR...
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LLJ/STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. 
THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VLY LATE IN THE
MORNING AS THE LLJ VEERS AND TRANSLATES NEWD.  THE PCPN/CLOUDS MAY
AUGMENT THE SURGING COLD FRONT OR INDUCE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR ATOP INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S/
THROUGHOUT ERN TX AND WRN LA.  THUS...THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
CAPPED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...AS THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD...LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
LOCALLY BREACH THE CAP AND INITIATE TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN TX/WRN
LA.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN 1/
STRENGTH OF THE CAP...2/ WEAKENING-INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 3/ ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  

IF TSTMS CAN FORM...PRESENCE OF 50-70 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS.  GIVEN THE
SCENARIO...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL.  IF
SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
TWO COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE STORM.

OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FROM SWRN-NRN TX ATOP A DEEPENING COLD DOME AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE REGION.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE MEAGER AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 11/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.