[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241635
SWODY1
SPC AC 241634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CSV 40 N MSL 25 WSW HOP 20 NE EVV 35 NW LUK 30 SSE CMH 20 SE HTS 30
SE CSV.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
CEW 20 NW DHN 30 SSE CSG 30 W MCN 35 SW AHN 15 NNW AHN 20 SE SPA 15
WSW FAY 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 15 NNE SSI 30 SE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
BVE 30 SSW CBM 30 WSW MKL 20 NNE CGI 50 E SLO 35 WSW MFD 30 WSW ERI
15 SE JHW 10 SE DUJ 25 NW EKN 45 NNW SSU 15 SSW SSU 20 ENE LYH 30
SSE CXY 10 ESE NEL ...CONT... 30 SE DAB 15 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ART 20 SW RUT
10 NW CON 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... MLB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 35 S HUM 25
ESE MCB 45 NNE JAN 35 SSW UOX 60 ENE LIT 15 S UNO 15 NW VIH 25 S PIA
25 ENE TOL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE MS RIVER...

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST TO THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ONGOING SQUALL LINE /POSSIBLE COOL-SEASON DERECHO/ CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WITH TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING INTO WRN FL PANHANDLE. 
THOUGH MCS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD AWAY FROM STRONG UVV/S AND MAIN
SURFACE FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS WRN TN/MS/SERN LA...STRONG MOMENTUM
AND VERY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LINE SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND SRN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  MESO LOW ON NRN
END OF LINE NOW NEAR ATL IS MAINTAINING PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM AHEAD
OF IT...AND WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD INTO NRN SC/CENTRAL NC.
INVERSION NEAR H7 EVIDENT ON CHS/S 12Z SOUNDING AND STRONG CIN
CURRENTLY IN PLACE MAY LIMIT PRE-SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...HEATING WITHIN THIN CIRRUS NOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN THIS LINE GIVEN
ITS ORGANIZATION.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH
POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN ALONG SYSTEMS PATH...THOUGH TORNADO
THREAT CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR.  TORNADO
POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS WHICH
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND NEAR ANY ENSUING MESO LOWS.  DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY AHEAD OF THE LINE NEARER THE GULF
COAST WHERE CIN IS WEAKER AND BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST.

LATER TONIGHT...STRONG SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
 GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE MOVING NEWD TOWARDS THIS REGION...THE THREATS OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE WARRANT EXPANDING SLIGHT RISK NWD
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...
SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OVER FAR SRN IL WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS SRN IND AND INTO CENTRAL OH THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ARE OVERSPREADING PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION ON WV IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING WILL OVERSPREAD SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF A NARROW AREA OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. 
IN FACT...TCU AND SMALL CBS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS OVER WRN TN INTO NRN MS /REF
SWOMCD 2462/.  EXPECT AN INCREASING TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE QUICKLY
EWD...WITH EVOLUTION INTO DISCRETE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
BOW ECHOES AS STORMS RACE ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.  THOUGH CAPE
WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXTREME SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED ONCE STORMS INTENSIFY. FAST
STORM MOTIONS...STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION...AND ORIENTATION OF
CONVECTIVE LINES PERPENDICULAR TO VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE COULD BE WIDESPREAD.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR AND
LIKELY PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.  EXPECT SEVERE
THREAT WILL RE-DEVELOP SWD INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
EFFECT THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TODAY.  WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 11/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.