[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241303
SWODY1
SPC AC 241302

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LEX 25
SSE OWB EVV BMG DAY 45 SW CMH 55 ESE LUK LEX.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS MGM
ANB AHN AGS AYS 25 SSE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 60
SW SEM 0A8 MSL 35 NNE MKL MVN HUF FDY YNG 15 NNE PIT 30 SSE HLG 30
NNE CRW JKL 35 WNW HSS AVL HKY DAN 30 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 E JAX 30
S CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ART 10 WSW BTV
15 SE BML 30 SSE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE 7R4 30 NNE MCB
45 SE GWO 20 SSW UOX 40 E LIT 25 ESE FYV 35 S SZL 20 SW UIN 25 ENE
TOL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AL...GA...AND THE
FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US...AND THE TN/OH VALLEYS...

...AL/GA/FL/CAROLINAS...
INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. 
THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCLUDED SEVERAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES OVERNIGHT.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF GA/FL PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.  12Z TLH SOUNDING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OVER 7 C/KM.  SEVERAL LOCAL VAD PROFILES ALSO CURRENTLY EXHIBIT VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 
ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER GA/SC...FURTHER ENHANCING SEVERE
THREAT.  GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ISOLATED CELLS
THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...
STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A THREAT OF
EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA. 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SC INTO PARTS OF NC OVERNIGHT.

...OH VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ROTATING ACROSS AR TOWARD
WESTERN TN.  THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO KY AND SOUTHERN
IND/OH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG/.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN KY/SOUTHEAST
IL IN VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  THESE STORMS WILL
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IND INTO OH. 
DESPITE RATHER WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS.  IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
WITH THESE STORMS.  VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ALSO SUGGEST A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION.

..HART/BANACOS.. 11/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.