[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241950
SWODY1
SPC AC 241948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
MOB HSV 35 S MKL 15 NW MKL 30 SW OWB 25 SSW HUF 45 NE CLE 15 SE JHW
10 SE DUJ 25 NW EKN 45 NNW SSU 15 SSW SSU 20 ENE LYH 30 SSE CXY 10
ESE NEL ...CONT... 30 SE DAB 15 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUM 30 SE MEI 25
ENE CBM 15 NNE MEM 30 NNE ALN 25 E MMO 35 NE MTC ...CONT... 10 WSW
ART 20 SW RUT 10 NW CON 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... MLB 15 S FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE MS RIVER...

...SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES ACROSS
E-CENTRAL GA AND SC.  MODERATE CAPE VALUES HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG NRN
PORTION OF THE LINE NOW MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL SC/SWRN NC.  WIND
DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
UNTIL IT FURTHER WEAKENS OR MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.  MORE
LIKELY NEAR-TERM TORNADO ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST
OFF THE NERN GULF COAST...WHERE AREA VWP/S INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL WITHIN
DEEP MOIST PROFILES...EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS/S SUGGEST
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE EVENING.  SQUALL LINE MAY
INTENSIFY/RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT CATCHES-UP TO CURRENT PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. 
THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
LATER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 
THUS...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG
UVV/S AND ENHANCED SHEAR PROFILES OVERSPREAD THIS REGION.

...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO SWRN IND IS DEEPER THAN MODELS FORECAST
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD AHEAD OF IT FROM JUST SOUTH OF
IND NEWD TO NORTH OF DAY AND CMH INTO CENTRAL OH.  LOW EXPECTED TO
TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE
TN.  ATTM...INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AND HAS STRUGGLED TO
MAINTAIN UPRIGHT UPDRAFTS WITHIN EXTREME SHEAR.  HOWEVER...FURTHER
HEATING AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS/BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD
OF LOW CENTER MAY ALLOW A FEW ERECT UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST LATE TODAY
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STRONG THUNDERSTORM GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES...AS THEY RACE NEWD AT 40-50 KT. 
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS STORMS APPROACH THE WRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING DUE TO COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
 HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY SUSTAIN SEVERE THREAT A BIT
LONGER INVOF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW CENTER IN OH.

..EVANS.. 11/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.