[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231929
SWODY1
SPC AC 231928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 60
SE AUS 40 E TPL 40 ESE PGO 60 SSW JBR 25 NNW UOX 30 WNW CBM 30 WSW
LUL 35 ESE 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
CRP 30 ENE COT 35 E DRT 40 NE P07 20 SW HOB 35 S CVS 30 WNW PVW 15
WSW CDS 15 SSE SPS 40 SSW ADM 35 W FYV 15 NNW POF 15 NW PAH 25 WNW
HOP 20 SSE BNA ANB 15 SE PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 55 S CAE 50
S AGS 60 N AYS 20 N VLD 30 WNW CTY ...CONT... 30 NW DRT 20 N P07 15
W FST 35 SW INK CNM 15 ENE ROW 45 WSW CVS 30 SW DHT 35 E LBL 20 S
SZL 20 WNW SLO 45 NE SDF 25 N JKL 30 NNW TRI 35 NNE HKY 25 ESE RDU
10 NNW HSE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN
TX...SRN/CENTRAL AR...LA...MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
THE LOWER MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF AL...

...ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INCREASING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER TO MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AHEAD OF EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  SURFACE FEATURES HAVE REMAINED
RATHER ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PREDOMINATE
LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER NERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MAIN WARM FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND EWD FROM THIS CENTER ACROSS
NERN TX/SRN AR AND INTO NRN MS/AL...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN TX AND LA THROUGH TONIGHT.  SURFACE
LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AR AND INTO THE LOWER
OH RIVER VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD
NWD INTO WRN TN AND POSSIBLY FAR SERN MO/WRN KY BY LATE TONIGHT.
WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AS
EVIDENCED BY 18Z RAOBS...WITH INCREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AXIS OF 40+ KT SLY LLJ BY THE EARLY EVENING.  ENHANCED SHEAR
WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER MS AND LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF EXPECTED SQUALL LINE.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE REMAINS
MINIMAL AND WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SHOULD AN UPDRAFT GET ROOTED DEEPLY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 03-6Z WHEN STRONG
SQUALL LINE COMPOSED OF LEWPS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SPREADS EAST
OF THE LOWER MS RIVER. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...REGION WILL BE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLEY CAPPED SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATER TONIGHT WITH THREATS OF TORNADOES/WIND
DAMAGE...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING WITHIN AND AHEAD OF MID LEVEL COLD POCKET
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINS DIFFUSE...LAPSE
RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 11/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.