[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231625
SWODY1
SPC AC 231623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
PSX 25 NW VCT AUS 20 NNW TPL 10 ENE DAL 10 NNE PRX 25 WSW MEM 10 NNW
UOX 30 SSW TUP 30 WSW LUL 35 ESE 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
CRP 30 ENE COT 40 NE DRT 55 NNE P07 25 ESE INK 40 ESE LBB 40 SSW ADM
35 W FYV UNO 30 S CGI 30 SSE PAH 35 WSW BNA ANB 15 SE PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT 40 ENE P07
30 N P07 25 ENE MRF 55 SSW GDP 40 E ELP 10 SW ALM 35 WSW 4CR 35 ESE
ABQ 30 ENE LVS LBL 20 S SZL 20 WNW SLO 45 NE SDF 25 N JKL 30 NNW TRI
35 NNE HKY 25 ESE RDU 10 NNW HSE ...CONT... 40 SW CRE 55 S CAE 50 S
AGS 60 N AYS 20 N VLD 30 WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX...SRN AR...LA AND WRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL TX..NRN AR...WRN TN...ERN MS...AL...AND THE FL
PANHANDLE...

...SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

RUC/ETA MODELS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING ILL DEFINED AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN NM/SWRN TX TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND ORANGIZE
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR DFW BY 00Z...AND THEN MOVE 
NEWD INTO N CENTRAL AR BEFORE 12Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NM BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS A HIGH
LEVEL JET MAX/OVER 100 KT/ON THE SRN BASE OF THE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD
FROM SWRN TX INTO ERN AR.

INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/ERN TX...REF WW 883 AND 884. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUSTAIN THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH 1 KM SRH AROUND 300
M2/S2...TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY AS A WARM FRONT...FROM NEAR JAN TO AUS... LIFTS
NWD INTO NRN TX/NWRN LA/SERN AR AND CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON. 

A BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FROM WEST OF DALLAS
SWWD INTO SWRN TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACCELERATE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN NRN TX. STRONG LINEAR FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND EWD ACROSS
AR/LA AND MS OVERNIGHT. THE LINEAR NATURE SUGGESTS THAT WIND DAMAGE
WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT....BUT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AND HAIL.  MODELS USUALLY TOO SLOW IN EWD
PROGRESSION OF SQUALL LINES ASSOCIATED WITH WIND MAX MOVING OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM LINE AND WIND
POTENTIAL INTO AL BEFORE 12Z.

AHEAD OF THE SQUALL...A WEAKLY UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS THE STRONG FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SQUALL LINE TONIGHT.

INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS NERN AR/EXTREME SERN MO/WRN
TX...BUT STRENGTHING LOW LEVEL JET TO 60 KT AND INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SWRN
TX AS DIURNAL HEATING AND COLD LOW ALOFT RESULT IN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL.

..IMY.. 11/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.