[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240115
SWODY1
SPC AC 240114

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
PSX 45 NW ALI COT 25 SSW SAT 25 S LFK 50 NNW ESF 25 NNE GLH 40 W UOX
15 SE UOX 50 NE JAN 15 SE MCB 40 WSW HUM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CRP 20 E LRD 55 W COT 50 W TPL 30 SSE SEP 20 NNE SEP 50 WNW MWL 40
SW SPS 45 E SPS 35 E DUA 45 S PGO 25 SW LIT 55 SW JBR 30 S POF 30 N
DYR 50 S BNA 30 N GAD 45 N MGM 35 S MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 15 SSW LRD
60 SSE DRT 15 E BWD 65 ESE LBB 25 ENE PVW 55 W CSM 25 SSE END 20 SSW
JLN 25 ENE SGF 20 ESE VIH 15 WNW MVN 15 WSW EVV 40 N BWG 40 E BWG 25
NNW CSV 15 E CSV 10 SE TYS 25 NE AVL 40 WSW GSO 20 SSE RDU 40 ESE
EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CRE 65 N AYS
25 NNW TLH 25 SSE PFN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...CNTRL AND
SRN LA...AND WRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF ERN TX...SRN
AND ERN AR...WRN TN...MS...AND WRN AL...

...ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TX TO NRN AR
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER NERN TX AND
TRACKS RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM TXK TO MO
BOOTHEEL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INTENSE FORCING FOR DEEP AND
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN TX ACROSS LA/THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TWO EXTENSIVE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXIST ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S.
THIS EVENING. THE LEADING BAND...FROM WRN TN SWWD INTO NRN LA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH.
AXIS OF STRONG ASCENT ALSO APPEARS TO BE TRAILING FROM A SUB-
SYNOPTIC SCALE VORTEX MOVING ACROSS ERN AR AT THIS TIME AND EJECTING
NEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY AND MOIST
INFLOW AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN LA AND NWRN MS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY
CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER LIX AND JAN RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LONG-TRACK ROTATING STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HIGH
WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM
APPEARS TO BE WITH A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL LA
PARISHES OF VERNON AND RAPIDES...AND TRAILING SWWD ACROSS BEAUREGARD
PARISH AND INTO NEWTON COUNTY TX. SEE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS AND WATCHES IN THIS AREA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FARTHER WEST...ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL TX...A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE
STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EJECTING LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. AN AXIS OF
RELATIVELY UNTAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTS AHEAD OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MOVING ACROSS WILSON AND
KARNES COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MOVING INTO
FALLS AND MILAM COUNTIES IN CNTRL TX WILL BE MOVING ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING COMING EAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING 90KT PER DRT RAOB...EXPECT
THESE CELLS TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WHILE MOVING GENERALLY EAST TOWARD THE TX GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DEEP LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS LA/MS AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS OK/AR LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY LINEAR AND ALIGNED WITH THE BAND OF
FORCING MOVING EAST FROM TX. AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD RESULT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TX GULF COAST NNEWD TO MS/AL. EXPECT DAMAGING
WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITHIN THIS LINE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO SERN LA AND ERN MS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 11/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.