[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231421
SWODY1
SPC AC 231420

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
PSX VCT AUS 40 W ACT FTW PRX 35 NE TXK GLH 30 NW JAN MCB 45 ESE 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
CRP NIR SAT 35 NE JCT ABI LTS OKC 40 NNW FYV 40 WSW UNO ARG MEM 50
WSW CBM CEW 10 SE PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DMN 15 N TCS 15
WNW ONM ABQ 20 NNE LVS 25 NE CAO 15 N LBL 15 WNW ICT 20 S SZL 20 WNW
SLO 30 S BMG 45 NNW LEX 30 W BLF 10 WNW LYH 15 NW ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 55 S CAE 50
S AGS 60 N AYS 10 N VLD 35 SE TLH.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...MUCH OF LA...AND WESTERN
MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX...SOUTHEAST OK
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR TUS. 12Z EPZ
SOUNDING SHOWS 350MB WINDS OF OVER 100 KNOTS.  THIS JET WILL ROTATE
ACROSS MUCH OF TX TODAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SAT - NORTH OF HOU - NEAR JAN.  WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS PRESENT
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER NORTHWEST TX AND DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. 
AT LEAST POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR THIS
RETREATING FRONT...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS.  12Z CRP
SOUNDING SHOWS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM AND OVER 2500 J/KG
MUCAPE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL OR
ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 18Z.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING AND
APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SAT-ACT. 
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES.  STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.  EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION INTO A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ENHANCING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF LA/MS.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG
TORNADOES WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS AXIS WOULD LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE AUS/ACT
AREA INTO NORTHWEST LA.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 11/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.