[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230107
SWODY1
SPC AC 230105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
ELP 20 SE ALM 25 WNW ROW 30 S CVS 50 SE LBB 35 W ABI 10 ENE SJT 30
SSW SJT 45 NE P07 40 WSW MRF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
PSX 25 N ALI 40 N NIR 30 ESE CLL 50 S SHV 45 NNE HEZ 35 SE JAN 10 S
LUL 40 SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 45 S ALI 30
WNW MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 50 SSE PHX
55 NE PHX 45 ESE GCN 35 ESE PGA 35 SW CEZ 45 N SAF 20 W CAO 40 SE
LBL 25 ENE OKC 40 NW HOT 30 N TUP 20 NW GSP 25 WNW RDU 15 SE ORF
...CONT... 20 NE CRE 40 SE AGS 25 SSE CSG PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
TX...SRN LA...AND SWRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM AND
WEST TX...

...SERN TX TO SRN LA/SWRN MS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIES GENERALLY ALONG A VCT...HOU...LCH LINE
AND HAS BEEN LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM N AND W OF
GLS ENEWD TO THE SABINE RIVER/LCH AREAS. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
STREAMING INTO THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTED WITHIN DEEP LAYER CONFLUENCE
ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW MAY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS
SRN LA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAX PASSING OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. BRIEF TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED FOR DISCRETE CELLS
TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW. STORMS CROSSING TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY...HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

...SERN NM TO WEST TX...
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHWEST
UPPER LOW WAS ALREADY SUSTAINING SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM
SERN AZ INTO FAR WEST TX THIS EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND VERY
STRONG SHEAR APPEAR TO BE COMPENSATING FOR LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY AND ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF
HAIL AND WIND WHILE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRY INTRUSION SPREADING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
BEGINNING TO NOSE ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION. VERY STRONG FORCING ON
THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE SEVERE TSTMS
POSSIBLY INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST FROM SERN NM AND ACROSS THE
UPPER PECOS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 11/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.